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WE ARE NOW AFRICALEARN. CHECK US OUT ON WWW.AFRICALEARN.ORG. SAME QUALITY CONTENT. EDUCATING THE MIND; TRANSFORMING THE LAND. 
 

Fist of cloud

For many of us, 2020 began on a hopeful note. The vigil service kind of hit differently on the eve of the new year. We had started the year with a resolve to have a great year. 2020 was destined, a year where we all could claim and indeed receive ‘double-double’. It did not quite appear it may turn out to be portions of double zero, double zero, but it literally was 2020.

It may appear, however, for the tissue paper man; he couldn’t have asked for a better year, not to talk about the sanitizer woman or the kingpins of the newfound face mask industry. For the likes of the ‘COVID-19 Kooko Aduro’ champ who sought to make gains, Anas seemed not to be chasing whales but the troublesome herrings.

For the social actors in the frontline of this pandemic, these seasons may have been some of their busiest, but for the majority of people, however, the last six months may have been some of the most uncertain and difficult times one has ever had to deal with. Whatever your narrative of 2020 is, this July, 1^st write-up may be beneficial.

A story has actively engaged my attention for the last few days and I wish to share it: A story is told about a powerful queen who believed in the superiority of her gods and on that conviction, influenced her husband, the king, to institute a law enforcing singularity of faith. All persons of other creeds and practices were killed, except for the ones who were hidden by a servant of the King, Obadiah.

There yet lived a certain man of national repute, resolute with an alternative conviction to the queen. He was an acclaimed leader of the prophets, a strong voice. He had gone into exile after he was sought in every city in the state as the king sought to enforce the queen’s wishes. This man cursed the land with drought and hardship following such cruelty of the queen and went into hiding.

His curse of drought had worked, the land had seen no rain in three years and extreme hardship had come upon the people of the land. No one had heard any word of him for years, except that, all of a sudden this Prophet sets out to meet Obadiah as the servant went out with the king to seek for still waters and foliage to feed the horse. He sends the king’s servant, Obadiah, to go tell the king, he had presented himself (classic Raymond Reddington fashion, voluntarily submitting to the FBI as in Blacklist).

This man then orders for a show of significant historic memory. He calls for faith to be validated by works, that we may allow a contest of the gods to prove who is mightier. Man, as he was, he sets the stage and invites the gods to a fight, a fight to send fire from above to consume a sacrifice. An invitation the gods seem to have obliged. At the end of the contest, the sovereignty of the God of Abraham, Isaac, and Israel is without a question, His existence, power, and presence proved by a man to the nations.

The story to this point is fascinating enough, but the subsequent events reveal something far more reaching and enlightening. He sets off to lift the curse and to bless the nation with rain and his method is what I hope we may find strength in this second half of 2020:

1. He declares an abundance of rain even before there is wind of a cloud. He tells the king in all confidence, again Reddington style, “Go up, eat and drink; for there is the sound of abundance of rain.” Note that, at this time, there was still hunger, famine, and drought, yet bustling in faith of a God who is sovereign, in whom he had had victory, he orders a celebration of abundance, yet when there is no evidence of same.

2. He then sets himself upon his knees to cause the heavens to intervene. He does what he knows best. He invokes rains, calling on the great sovereign God of the fathers to harness the uncertainties for Himself. That he may bless the nation with abundance. Let us be reminded of faith of abundance, but in humility with our knees on the ground, let us travail in works that tears the heavens and pour down rain.

3. He then sets a watch over the sea, a man who understood the formation of the clouds as he, Elijah, engages in the work. He sought to find insight from others. For seven times, he battles in great work, yet without any sign of rain, until there was a word: “Then it came to pass the seventh time, that he said, “There is a cloud, as small as a man’s hand, rising out of the sea!”

The most profound thing for me from this story is his strong conviction that a cloud “as small as a man’s hand’ will be a mighty rain. After all the years of drought, the massacre and seven times of continuous travail, who will wish all the Creator of the Universe will bestow was “a cloud, as small as a man’s hand”?

Let me conclude by reminding ourselves, COVID-19 may have been like the drought, for some of us, we may have labored for years in the faith, prayers, work and insight and are still yet to experience the abundance of rain. I write this to affirm the faith of the faithful, to assure us that, In the seemingly insignificant clouds rests the mighty rains. 

Most importantly, however, I speak concerning rains. The rain comes. My name is Yaw Sompa. Good morning and happy new month. 

Economic Recovery Post-COVID-19: A case for Africa’s version of Bretton Woods System

I am a concerned  African youth. Worry would have been my word of choice, but it sounds depressing so let me just stick to concern. The dilemma of the economic consequence of a pandemic and the public health evidence necessary to decide on a lockdown or otherwise is a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea.  I know, fellow Ghanaians, that being a president of any country in these times is about the most difficult job anybody can bargain for, especially, when your countrymen are like the people in the Exodus stories of the Bible. I intend to reflect on this dilemma and as a follow up to my last article about the need to prioritize the African Continental Free Trade Area, make yet another suggestion (hopefully not to the wind) for an African agenda for economic liberation. I write today about long-term structural changes and monetary policy management changes that must enable African countries to be truly independent, empowering Africa to fully recover post-COVID-19.

The decision to lift the lockdown appears premature, at least, that is what the experts and evidence from a public health perspective show. But why will the decision become the only choice seemingly available for the leaders of the nation? The economic costs appear a much compelling cost to lives and livelihood such that risking human lives for economic enterprise is reasonable, so let us interrogate the economics a bit more.

The tradeoff between blood and money has always been real but during crises, blood money seems the only choice. The question is, what world economic system narrows the possibilities such that, usually blood money is the only choice left to countries like Ghana? The Finance Minister in his recent article, ‘What does an African finance minister do now?’ made a rather profound statement: “I am green with envy. To be honest, there is a lump in my throat as I think of Africa’s predicament. I question the unbalanced nature of the global architecture.” 

The obvious question is, what is this global architecture and how unbalanced is it? The tales of the global economic order goes something like this; World War II is coming to an end. July 1944 is the date, the consensus is almost universal, political stability is only possible when there is economic liberty and creating a system of rules that enable international trade will bring wealth. United States of America was the obvious dominant nation, call it the beginning of US hegemony.

In the words of the famous economist John Keynes, “It has been our task to find a common measure, a common standard, a common rule acceptable to each and not irksome to any.” Note the time sequence however, at this time when the ‘developed’ world sought a mutually beneficial means to be more prosperous and an order not bothersome to any, Africa was still being colonized. It was therefore the colonizers building a global architecture whiles Africa was the colonies supplying raw materials for the economic survival of the powers that were. Let us be fair without reading race into the conversation, parties can only think about their interest and if you are not on the table or you happen to be incompetent on the table, it will be your responsibility and not the other party’s fault if you come up short at the end of the deal. Fair enough right? Well, not exactly.

The only problem is that, the ability to sit on the table as a worthy counterpart, even a forceful powerhouse seemed to have been robbed some hundred years before this July 1944 date. The Berlin Conference had taken place from November 1884 to February 1885. It was the official scramble for Africa which left us small, partitioned and without a sense as a union. The fathers of the United States of America had fought some twenty years before the Berlin Conference to preserve their union, a United States of America, and it was this Union of States in America that was setting the agenda for the new economic order in 1944.

Long story short, United States dollars became the reserve currency directly convertible to gold until Nixon’s shock in August 1971 made the paper dollar as good as gold. The International Monetary Fund (aka. IMF) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (aka. World Bank Group) became the institutional vestiges to protect the reserve currency and the ongoing interest of its shareholders. America is of course the controlling shareholder, and yes other developed nations. Pax Americana had been born, a golden age of a prosperous dollar, and a trend of devaluation of developing countries’ currency because of deficits in trade balances, flow of capital and multinationals who speculate on currencies for quick profits not necessarily backed by economic activity. 

The basic understanding was that, if a country produced more and exports its products and technology to other countries, that value of good or service will be measurable in USD and that ‘gain’ becomes a surplus in their current account. That gain for contributing to the world will be netted against all imports received. The net deficit balance of payment like a gap in a balance sheet must be financed. Because the currency of trade is the dollar, any countries gap has to be financed with the almighty dollar and it is only the United States who has the sovereignty to print the paper called dollar and dispatch it through these institutional vestiges.

A country that runs a deficit must finance that gap with the dollar loan from the Bretton Woods system or currently, China is the destination but they must pay back with tangible assets valued by a ‘Standard’ agreeable to the system and priced in agreement with the ‘forces of the market’. So fiat money which is nothing but paper printed by one country is sent to another and the other is required to payback with gold, oil, etc. in quantities deemed equivalent in amounts by this printing nation and payable by government taxes and revenue from the toils of its people, festering nothing more than the old age agenda of raw materials gained at the cheapest possible means. Worst off, a talented youth who sees the power of the dollar will value it and go hustle giving raw talent to the developed country widening the knowledge and technology gap with the developing world.

The argument usually then is to stop the deficit, produce and create a surplus and increase demand for your currency. The irony is that your currency does not provide liquidity for trade as much as the dollar will which means that in a floating rate regime as we have, free-market will mean I can convert my cedi to the dollar so that when I go to even China, the dollar is more acceptable rather than a cedi which may not be that acceptable. The bigger problem with trading with the reserve currency is that, the speculative enterprise becomes only one way; the true north will always be the direction of the reserve currency. Devaluation however has real consequences, falling disposable income for ordinary people.

Since deficits are financed in dollars and the home country’s currency is almost certain to devalue, the loan balloons and can rarely be repaid, resources then become available for cheap if not for free just by an exercise in printing cash. According to Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, Kenneth Rogoff, “The world's need for dollars has allowed the United States government as well as Americans to borrow at lower costs, giving the United States an advantage in excess of $100 billion per year.”

So let us bring the conversation home, there is a pandemic, lives are at stake, but there is a budget deficit that needs to be financed in dollars. No economic activity means no cedi to convert to dollars for trade which will lead to further depreciation of the cedi and increasing deficit then more borrowing in dollars for pandemic interventions and the cycle goes on, deepening the poverty. The government must intervene but must he do so by printing cash? Maybe but even that, the problem is, printing will require borrowing dollars since you do not print cedi in cedi, so someone will have to give Ghana paper in dollars to exchange for paper called cedi so we may pay with tangible assets in reserve.

Perhaps in the short term the conversation about debt forgiveness is right but in the long term we must sustain the conversation about why the dollar is the reserve currency and why African countries should not agree to invoice each other in a common tradable unit not the dollar or a currency pegged to Euro? Whatever the long term perspective may be, our eyes must be fixed on an African conversation that creates in the words of John Keynes a “common standard”, “common measure” and “common rules acceptable to each and not irksome to any.”

Let me conclude yet again in the words of Mr. Ken Ofori-Atta, “Where is the leadership and global task force that would mirror the 1944 Bretton Woods monetary conference?” I will only wish to modify that and ask, “Where is the African leadership willing and able to mobilize the global task force to create a new monetary system that does not impoverish Africa?”. By all means let us not forget the history that, after Bretton Woods, there was a Marshall plan where $12 billion foreign aid was given to Western Europe to develop because they were significantly affected by World War II. This journey to economic freedom is the real battle and it shall not be won except by knowledge and unity. So let us forget the petty partisanship and for once, let us focus on something truly extraordinary, building an economic system that does not perpetuate poverty for our people.

My name is Yaw Sompa, I believe for lack of knowledge the African will perish but through knowledge and superior discernment he shall be delivered and so I represent learning for the New African. I am an author of two books ‘Fate of System Thinking’ and ‘Be The Difference’. 

Post COVID-19, Resurrection and the Continent Free to Trade

The Akans in Ghana have a sacred story about sacrifice, a story which made it possible for the Asante Kingdom to be formed. This tale of sacrifice was inspired by a dream of unity Nana Obiri Yeboah had. A dream that all the Akan states will be one, advancing their common interest in harmony, but that dream was not to be so until there was voluntary bloodshed of royals. Three chiefs laid down their lives so the people may prosper and be in good health. There was no inspired significance for the people, until leadership was summed up in the word, sacrifice.

Sacrifice as a word has an interesting origin; from the Latin, 'sacra' from which we get "sacred" and 'facere' which means "to make or to do". Sacrifice is therefore not a linguistic sport but daring to do that which may only be considered sacred. This implies that one cannot do that which is ordinarily required and be deemed to have sacrificed, it therefore only matters to say sacrifice, if it is an act and fit for the 'gods'.

It thus seems right to remind ourselves of a necessary sacrifice we must make as Africans, a reminder especially fit on a day like this, when we commemorate God Himself having sacrificed everything for humanity. This is an article about the necessary sacrifice we must make to ensure that the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) becomes a successful reality post-COVID-19.

The objective of the AfCFTA is unambiguous, to bring together all 55 member states of the African Union, covering a market of more than 1.2 billion people and an estimated gross domestic product (GDP) of more than US$3.4 trillion. It is almost without question that a single continental market for goods and services, with free movement of business persons and investments whiles we harmonize and well-coordinate trade liberalization and facilitation across Africa is a wealth creation strategy and not one only rooted in poverty alleviation. It breaks away from the gradualist reducing poverty narrative to an African collaborative landscape, an arena full of possibility and from where, I believe, comes our salvation.

The question however remains, if the AfCFTA is that important and so critical for the liberalization and growth of the continent, why has it taken us 57 years to get here? Why does it not even appear to be priority one for the continent? And why are we told only 28 countries have deposited its instrument of ratification with the African Union Commission? There were glimmers of hope as the office in Ghana became legally operationalized on 31^st March 2020, but that was just when the coronavirus pandemic threatened us. Will this virus set us forward or backward? Will trading be effective on 1 July 2020 or will the virus be used to derail our growth agenda yet again?

These are questions we must answer but today’s article intends to highlight areas the African youth must focus on as a strategic direction, harnessing the stay at home because of COVID-19 as a strategic planning opportunity. I will emphasize opportunities we must prepare to take advantage of as the continent is changing and perhaps COVID-19 was the necessary reset necessary for planning and strategizing. 

1. It is a fact that the coronavirus will set many economies into recession. This is not good news but the opportunity therein is that; skill, labour, prudence and investment will be necessary for the rebuilding. The African youth will have to learn to collaborate beyond its imaginary borders and becomes the solution that builds the continent. The young entrepreneur must envisage a market of 1.2 billion in planning post-COVID-19 and not a population of about 30 million people as the case may be in Ghana. This requires new thinking and envisioning; one we must teach ourselves in these times. 
2. Payment system solutions and E-Business will continue to become relevant and with increasing scale post-COVID-19. The question of how do we pay people intra-Africa will require answers. Enabling business over the internet will become much more relevant after the pandemic. The young African can therefore not choose to be techy, he or she must explore the possibilities. The fields of payment systems and electronic business offer multiple unchartered disruptions and we must learn and enable our societies to grow. Digital can only grow and building skills set that understands these conversations will serve one well.
3. Pursing cross boarder value chains must become an agenda. It is perhaps time to make LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook friends transcend one’s country. It is also time to build social capital and depth that can transform into business partnerships. African economies are built on raw material export and an informal commerce but it is time to think of integrating value across Africa with structured, replicable models.
4. Standards and Certifications. These are the opportunity to define what is trustworthy. The narrative over the years of slavery and colonialism seems to have shifted the view of what is standard to what is western. The economies may be informal but it is not without wisdom and the young must build businesses around institutionalizing our way of life and business. The African youth needs to enter the fight at redefining standards and authenticity, bearing in mind context and good culture without following blindly, leapfrogging to nowhere.
5. Education that is collaborative and intends to solve African problems must become our way of life. I am big on education and I represent a movement called, AfricaLearn. I truly believe development and growth are limited without a progressive meaningful education. It is time for the African youth to learn his history, understand her culture, the continent’s most pressing problems without assuming foreigners will be the little gifts from above wiping the tears off our eyes.
6. Harmonizing Laws and Regulations. It is time for the young lawyer to focus on comparative legal study and how to harmonize at least the Lex Mercatoria. How do we aid merchants to trade in a common market must be a thinking in the mind of our jurist and legal minds.

The solution for African problems must be viewed differently. The young African is the factor that has been marginalized for years because the culture treasures age, maybe rightly so, but it is time for the continent to call on the youth to sacrifice and to build a grand future without taking lightly their youth. It is time to depend on the smartness of the African youth because the wealth of nations is no mystery; raw material dependency leads to poverty. It is learning and value-added economy that generates wealth.

The continent is brimming with a young population and that is a gift we must harness. The big structural questions of currency of trade (reserve currency and valuation of goods and services), physical movement across the borders, infrastructure constraints, financing and all are real but it is my prayer that as COVID-19 holds us siege we will think and plan of what we can do and not worry about what other people must do.

Let me end by reminding us once again, the task ahead is truly great and will require some bold acts, acts for which without sacrifice, ‘sacrifice’ would have found itself nowhere near this article. The wolf is not spoken of with much glory in any African story, but even for the wolves their strength is not is the speed or agility of the individual but in the unity of the pack. I conclude in the words of H.E. Mahamadou Issoufou, President of the Republic of Niger and Leader on AfCFTA, “Your Excellencies, the AfCFTA baby is eleven months old, healthy and growing. We need to ensure that the baby continues to grow. The decisions that we make are very critical in this regard.” I wish everyone a happy Easter, praying that, like Jesus we may become aware of the abundant life hidden in sacrifice.

My name is Yaw Sompa, I am an author of two books, the first on Financial Services challenges in Africa and the second on the Leadership Challenges in Africa. I believe in the continental free trade and only pray COVID-19 is a call from above, indicating: ‘ON YOUR MARKS, GET SET, GO!”

Pandemics and Economics: A trade between Blood and Paper?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I woke up this morning and indulging my usual curiosity, I decided to read a November 2007 publication by one Thomas A. Garret on “Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Implications for a Modern-day Pandemic”. For the avoidance of doubt Thomas, at the time was, the Assistant Vice President and Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, he must be praised for his near prophetic write-up some 13 years ago. I read his work wondering if the world did not pay attention to voices like his because the probabilities of such an event occurring was too low? 

Today I regurgitate important parts of his report drawing specific lessons relevant for us, bearing in mind the Ghanaian context and also with the view that we may reduce the impact since we have been less hit (at least so far) and certainly assuming the UN advise for African Countries to prepare for a worst possible scenario in two weeks to three weeks is no April Fool’s prank.

1.    The first thing that stuck with me from Thomas’s publication was; “Health care is irrelevant unless there are systems in place to ensure that an influenza pandemic will not knock out health-care provision and prevent the rapid disposal of the dead in the cities… If medical staff succumbs to the influenza and facilities are overwhelmed, the duration and severity of the pandemic will be increased.” The first question then for me this morning was, if the forecast of a worst case scenario for African countries, more than Italy or Spain, is anything to go by, can our health systems withstand the stress? I guess we will let the medics answer that but our collective observations as non-medical professionals may need some faith. The discussion for the health system should be how are we preparing for a worst possible scenario? The questions in these times should not be wash your hand, use sanitizer and so forth, although extremely important, the conversation at this stage should be, assuming a worst possible viral exposure and how do we deal with it? And please bear in mind as covid-19 escalates other illness have not reduced, the already overstretched facilities with death in simple things like maternal mortality still exists and may also escalate. So let us refocus the conversation now to a what will we do if these infections get worst.
2.  The second thing in the report that caught my attention was; “Local quarantines would likely hurt businesses in the short run. Employees would likely be laid off. Families with no contact to the influenza may too experience financial hardships. To prevent spread, quarantines would have to be complete (ie. No activity allowed outside of the home). Partial quarantines, such as closing schools and churches but not public transportation or restaurants (as done in Philadelphia, St. Louis and Washington D.C.) would do little to stop the spread of the influenza.” I know the trade off is between bloods and money but for a people who say, ‘Sika y3 mogya’ we will still hope a partial lock down has the blessing of God, in contradiction to what the evidence shows. The bigger question then will be how long should a lockdown be anticipated and with what increasing strictness will the lockdown be with the passing days? Ghana did implement a movement restriction and a partial lockdown. The stampedes in our markets and travelling two days prior to the effective date of the Restriction notice made my heart skip a beat and cringe with the words, lead us not into temptations, for thine is the Kingdom.
3.  “Some businesses could suffer revenue losses in excess of 50 percent. Others, such as those providing health services and products, may experience an increase in business (unless a full quarantine exits). If the pandemic causes a shortage of employees, there could be a temporary increase in wages for the remaining employees in some industries…” Businesses such as financial institutions which already have assets in some of the worst hit industries will see the effect in their asset quality. Industries who fund these assets with deposits are expected to see cash flow squeezes and the economic effect will be significant. Money will be lost but must we trade that for lives? The moral answer is obvious but the economics is not an easy choice for any business person at this time. We have seen some mortgage banks in Ghana already making prudent decision to suspend repayments (bad for the profitability but certainly great for the optics). And yet speaking about the trade of profit for optics, I have personally had a regrettably painful experience with GHL Bank and think if all of the dust settles, we should interrogate the complete disregard for client’s right with institutions like theirs and all the other greedy traders selling things like ‘gari’ for ridiculous sums (My crime was I opted to reduce my principal, give them back their money earlier than expected, yes! And the options they gave me for penalty for paying earlier were completely outlandish, disregard for the contract because of ‘New Regulations without Notice’, prepayment fees wahala. I have never been a fun of boycott of an economic entity but if I ever become one, it will be because of the terrible customer experiences and unpardonable greed. No one else should experience an inhumane profiteering business enterprise especially during these times. But again can you blame an institution that seeks profit over a humane optics?) Many economic entities will be faced with this blood-money dilemma; I hope my mother was right when she said, “human beings are sweet, we just don’t eat their flesh” or at least we should choose to let companies without values know they can’t be all about the money, at least not now. My view is that, after this pandemic, the business organisations that are organized for value and not only profit should have our loyalty. Good values will therefore sustain the economics in the long run. 
4.  I cannot overemphasize the need for personal responsibility enough, especially at this time, because as the data indicates, “Government has shown its inability to handle disasters in the past” and private institution may frame disasters in the light of profitability. Hard as we want godfathers to solve all our problems for us so we can blame everybody but ourselves for outcomes, please note that, your blood is yours and yours alone to determine how you spill it.

My concluding thoughts will be, society in itself may recover rather quickly but a loss of a loved one will be an eternal scare. I pay tribute to Senior Samuel Waterberg, a man I met twice and had great conversations with and respect for. Preventing a pandemic of this nature from happening would have been the best risk management approach but at last we are here. Complete Quarantine is known to be the most effective risk mitigation technique but will the money let us choose that?

It is not all gloom, however, (at least again not yet). Let our attitude and inclination in these really uncertain times be one of survival first. It is blood that prints papers and builds the productive sector to sustain its economics. But as we choose life may we build stronger communities and effective support systems in anticipation of the values of unity, cooperation and one mindedness by which even the gods could not stop the tower of Babel except to cause disunity. And for institutions like GHL and the greedy market women who give us experiences we wish we never had to talk about, let us be bold to remind them that the world after this pandemic will be much bolder, freer and humanity will be at the center of our economics.

Of course, we must all learn at all cost in these times with anticipation of what a post COVID-19 world will look like so we may advance society forward. Let me end with an African proverb, “when the chief’s palace is destroyed by the raging market day fire, it gives  the community the opportunity to build a much loftier palace by the next market day.” So stay safe, stay at home, learn all you can and let’s look forward to a great Ghana and a much prosperous Africa after this is over. My name is Yaw Sompa, May God bless our homeland Ghana and Make Africa great.

Uncertainties and Black Swans

DEPOSITPHOTOS ENHANCED BY COGWORLD

Nassim Nicholas Taleb rose into fame as a risk analyst when his 2007 book, The Black Swan, was described as one of the most influential books since World War II. The subject matter of his book does not seem like the normal everyday conversation, so for him to have pulled such popularity with this book was in itself a black swan. The book is about randomness, probabilities and uncertainty. The most interesting part of Nassim’s story of success was his sense of timing, and how that book helped 'predict' the big global financial crisis in 2008. In this article I ask if COVID-19 is a black swan and what it will likely take to survive if it is. 

Let us start from the heart of the problem, averages and definitions. The human species has a limit to knowledge, the things we are sworn to have observed are sometimes tainted with biases and there is countless unseen and unknowns even in our best predictions. The beauty of modern science however is the pursuit to know truth and predict the future. We curate expertise and commoditize ideas, dish them out as maps of reality- a predictive life’s guide that we can bet on. We are always taught that averages is how we best fit EXPECTATIONS and the whole pursuit should be how to define such expectations with a formula so we can predict the future. 

I love the science of prediction and decision making and take pleasure in the almost exactitude one could ‘prophesy’ some event due to the ability to define a near accurate pattern which guides expectations, saving all of us from trending in the dark without a guide. In the discus of this science of ‘averages’ however, we fail to talk about the tails and the worst possible scenarios giving an endurably long holding period in such long tails. We are blinded of the nuance as we pursue the averages and that is the knowledge that must begin the search for survival in black swans.

So now to the point, pandemics. 1918 influenza pandemic is said to have affected a third of the world's population and killed between 50 to 100 million people. However, many people managed to survive a severe infection and others displayed only mild symptoms. 50 million deaths in 1918 where the global population was estimated around 1.8 billion was catastrophic to say the least. Lovers of predictions and modelling however have an interesting forecast: “If a similar pandemic occurred today, scientists estimate the death toll could be as high as 147 million. While it is impossible to know when or how the next flu pandemic will emerge, one thing is certain -- future pandemics won't be exactly like the 1918 pandemic, but it still has lessons to teach us.”[1] 

The “Spanish influenza,” as it was called taught us many things but the most enduring lesson is perhaps that, governments are not the best managers of uncertainties least of all black swans. The history points to how the pandemic overwhelmed local hospitals, forced businesses, schools and churches to close and exposed serious shortfalls in how governments organize society. Personal responsibility therefore proves to hold superior likelihoods of prevention and control.

According to John M. Barry, the author of ‘The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague in History’, “the biggest lesson from the 1918 pandemic is clearly to tell truth”, so permit me to share some truths, as we know it, about COVID-19.

1. Authorities are usually keen to keep a national or organizational morale and they will usually keep a jokey perspective and reassure so as to frame and define expectations in more favourable terms than it may be. The truth being that, if a business person can profit from the chaos or a politician can increase power even at the risk of many lives, they may reframe for the benefits of those expectations irrespective of the most probable consequences of the black swan.
2. The probability of death as we know it now is about 4%. This means that, for every 100 positive tests confirmed for the virus, only 4 do die and thus is likely to die. This does not mean however that we should not take the pandemic seriously as the first 4 people who contract the virus will not wait for the 96 before any can die. The truth being that, you could be one of the 4% if you ever contract the virus or worse, the 4% is only limited to the cohort and not an individual’s exact probability.
3. Out of the data for the confirmed deaths, for every 5 deaths one is above 80 years. It will appear the age has become the narrative but is the age the variable or it is only a derivative of the underlying truth of how strong one’s immune system is? Should the stories focus on how to strengthen the immune system too or focus on age which is deterministic?
4. Getting enough sleep and managing stress is a proven natural means of boosting the immune system, so does the panic and chaos make this all important quest of distressing any better? What happened to the truth of eating fruits and vegetables and exercise as a more predictive element of survival if even one got the virus?
5. Bad personal hygiene is likely to kill you so is bad emotional and psychological hygiene. So yes, washing your hands may save you from the virus, and by all means follow good hygiene, but maintain a good mental hygiene too, as the effects of the fear on your heart and well-being is as real.
6. The ultimate truth is, “we are learning new things about the virus, everyday”. Truth simplified we don’t know jack. It will therefore make sense for all of us who have suddenly become COVID-19 experts to reassess what we truly think we know and differentiate it from what is indeed knowable.
7. We may not know the virus, but we know human beings and history teaches that the ability to adapt is a measure of resilience and only the resilient shall survive in the worst black swans.
8. It is equally truth that, there is a kayayo woman whose norm is the hustle of the everyday Ghanaian market place, a woman who has three children begging on the street, a woman and 3 homeless children who is at risk as much as all of us.

Let me find resolve in the common truth that we know very little about this virus. Like all black swans, they are spoken of in hindsight with conviction. There are expectations, which we must by all means have but there are also uncertainties which we must learn to flourish in. Uncertainties however have a senior brother, the black swan (A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.[2]). We may be able to define, even measure and mitigate uncertainties but a black swan is a special kind of ‘fuckery’, you just eat pie and wait for it for pass so you tell your grandchildren you survived on sanitizers without water and in perpetual Dum.

Certainly pray that this is not a black swan, because faith will be needed, but above all live your best life today because life has never been guaranteed anyways. Let us in conclusion be reminded of the Tardigrades, the animal that is said can survive without food or water for more than 30 years. In extreme conditions, the tardigrade does not panic or burn more energy, it lowers metabolism to less than 0.01% of what is ordinarily normal for it. It hibernates and wait until it can rehydrate, forage and reproduce but when the timing is against it, it just keeps calm and learns.

My name is Yaw Sompa, I represent AfricaLearn and will always be a believer in the African and in humanity, particularly today.

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[1] "Lessons from the 1918 flu pandemic, 100 years on." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 8 October 2018.

[2] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blackswan.asp

The Phoenix and The Ash: A Tale of Fire and Rebirth

A phoenix depicted in a book of legendary creatures by FJ Bertuch (1747–1822)

My father had an old bicycle when I was growing up. It was called phoenix. The name did not mean much, except that, it was a bicycle I had gotten from my father as a young boy. Phoenix was reliable although it was bigger than me and required a lot of tact whiles I rode it. The prayer was, the chain must never unhinge as the bar was no friend to the groin. Well, as you can tell, I was always fond of the phoenix. Little did I know it held a much bigger lesson than just an old trusted family means of transport.

My fondness of the Phoenix took a completely new turn on 13^th February, 2002. I was 14 years old at St. James Seminary Secondary. St. James is undoubtedly the best secondary school in Ghana, let no one tell you otherwise. We attended church services twice every day and on this particular day, the morning mass was special, at least for me. Most Rev. Matthew Kwasi Gyamfi was the rector and as the ritual was at mass, he will exhort us before class. On this particular Ash Wednesday, he spoke about the Phoenix, not as a bicycle my father had but as a Greek mythical story.

Folklore as I knew it was about Kwaku the spider, but this story was different. Yes, it was a story about an animal just as the spider was, but that is as far as the similarities went. So indulge me as I tell you the story as I heard it 18 years ago, of course adjusting it for my own growth and learning. I tell it as we celebrate yet another ash Wednesday with the view that I may inspire yet another phoenix lover.

Once upon a time, a great bird lived in the high lands, a mighty bird only close in imagery to the griffin (a legendary creature with the body, tail, and back legs of a lion; the head and wings of an eagle; and sometimes an eagle's talons as its front feet). This bird was so noble that, it is the only animal Zeus blessed with a halo. The halo was its sacred gift allowing it to fly the closest to the sun. The phoenix had grown as a great life in the sky, enjoying the beautiful heavenly view of the world. The bird lived in the sky, high above any other animal but its journey began some 500 years ago when it was born on the high desert mountains.

It is the eve of its 500^th birthday, the nations had grown to witness the sight of the mysterious bird gliding through the skies in nobility, but on this particular day, its groaning could be heard, loud wailing, and thunderous quacks that sent shivers across the spines. What in the name of heavens was happening to our dear phoenix? As it turned out, it was its last flight, it must return to the high mountains in the desert where it all began.

At the break of midnight, the great legendary bird, returns to the heap of twigs and wood it had gathered and striking its beak against the stone, sets the heavy heap on fire. The glorious bird flies gently and sits on top of the burning rubble. The phoenix burns itself all through the night into ashes. It will appear all the glory of the bird had ended; its end had come in pain.

The more obvious perspective was the death of the phoenix, but the story of the phoenix is not one of an end but a beginning, the beginning of yet another 500 years of a glorious hallowed bird. At the first light of the new day, just when the dawn breaks, the story of pain takes a different turn. It becomes a story of rising out of the ashes after harnessing the pain as energy for rebirth. The sun of the new day comes and with it, a newly born beautiful phoenix, covered in a far more glorious halo than anyone had ever seen.

The old had given away to the new. That is the story of life; ashes and rebirth. For the religious, you may have gone for mass or a service today as we celebrate ash Wednesday, a day that begins the lent, a 40-day journey before we remember the death and resurrection of Jesus of Nazareth.

The beauty of the story of the phoenix and Easter are very similar. The power of both stories remain in the inspiration that, it does not matter how much burnt you feel, there is a new life with the rising sun. Friday may last for three days, but Sunday surely comes soon. Wail, quack and endure the fire; for it is only through that we are born again.

In conclusion, Chapter One of my new book ‘Be The Difference’ begins with ‘Once upon a time…’ and then goes on to tell a great African story of sacrifice, a tale upon which all forms of transformative leadership is born. Sacrifice is not a gleeful word but a desperately needed one, so on this ash Wednesday, be reminded: Pain has its place and if you allow it, it shall serve you well, for sometimes when we sacrifice something precious, we are not losing it; we are passing it on to someone else. 

Is Knowledge Power?

When you drive through University of Ghana, you will notice a giant statue of a book at the main entrance with one ancient aphorism that has been viewed persuasively for years. The question however remains; Is knowledge really power? Is power not just power or is money not the closest to power. This article was inspired by this statue and will attempt to think of such things as real power is. I seek to question if indeed knowledge can be said to be power. Before the long philosophical debate, let’s tell ourselves a story.

Once upon a time, there lived a great and powerful emperor who ruled Rome, Marcus Aurelius was his name. He was a man of great learning and skill, considered with great respect and viewed as one of Rome’s most worthy leaders. For all the great legacies of Marcus Aurelius, his meditations are perhaps the most powerful extension of his influence. His writings and learning, his knowledge of stoic philosophy has lived on for two millennia, receiving praise from other leaders, philosophers and writers long after he is dead and seemingly gone. It will appear in Marcus Aurelius, there is no debate; Knowledge is truly the source of his power and a great legacy.

The great emperor, Marcus Aurelius, in his writing had summed up the knowledge and principles necessary for a virtuous life. He laid the foundation of what was the essence of power over self and of a state. Just as one is tempted to conclude on the debate, the story gets interesting. The great King is ill and must name an heir, one for whom the knowledge of virtue, influence and power is persevered. Will the emperor adopt an heir not of his bloodline or name his son, Commodus, as the next emperor? It will have been an easier choice, except that, his son was not ready, speaking as diplomatic of his incompetence as possible.

Commodus is certainly not the man Aurelius had written of in his meditation, perhaps just the opposite of everything a virtuous man should be; a man of little knowledge and discipline, so, if knowledge was indeed power, he should be a man who has no business even as a candidate for the job of the emperor. Marcus Aurelius seemed to have answered, knowledge is power in words but will his choice of an heir affirm his believes and teachings?

If you have guessed by now, your guess is likely to be right. Commodus is named the next emperor. It appears at this point, it not about ‘know-how’ of an emperor’s job but the ‘Know-who’. Knowledge that gives power is reduced to knowledge of who rather than what or even how. This article therefore explores at its essence the ‘know-why’ of power.

The reign of Commodus marked the beginning of the fall of the Roman Empire, the end of the era called, Pax Romana. Commodus practically resigned from all responsibilities and handed the reign to Cleander, a Phrygian slave. A man who schemed for more power, even a conspiracy to murder Commodus, one Commodus escaped miraculously. The tragedy of Commodus’ reign was his murder by Narcissus after the emperor decided to fight as a gladiator, against the advice of the senate. 

Commodus fought as an attempt to win back the trust of the people for which Cleander’s epic failure had lost. There were riots and chaos by the people and the emperor was going to fight in the arena, a noble gesture it will seem, but just as the man he was, he cheated. He cheats in the fight by giving the other warriors dull blades, yet again, he did not have the knowledge or discipline of the arena but had the ‘power’ to do as he pleased. To do as emperor what he wished without knowledge, he had hurried to his own death, murdered by an old champion of the arena, a man who revenged the murder of his friends in the arena. Commodus scared his legacy as perhaps an emperor not to be remembered, at least not for the right reasons.

The central question is, why did Marcus Aurelius forsake the knowledge that preserved him, swayed by the social connection to his son, preferring willful ignorance to the wisdom of his own meditations? The answer appears in the word, knowledge from whose etymology is ‘acknowledge’. Knowledge is therefore only powerful to the extent that it is acknowledged. Commodus was the prince, recognized as the next emperor irrespective of his competence. Power is derived from recognition and that is exactly what the ancient ‘Scientia potentia est’ means. What is recognized is therefore more important as a source of power than the best techniques or facts known. 

A classic example of how superior knowledge may mean little without recognition is the technique of underhand free throw in basketball. The science proves that, one is less likely to miss a throw with this technique but its notoriety as the ‘granny style’ makes it almost an unthinkable option for players although it is scientifically more effective. So yes, know-how, know-what and even know-who may not always be power but knowing why a group of people acknowledge something is surely power. Acknowledged knowledge and social recognition is definitely more powerful than superior knowledge.

So the next time you drive through the university of Ghana, appreciate the essence of the statue as an effort to recognize knowledge’s place in our society. Anytime you see the statue, be reminded and recognize that, knowledge is indeed more powerful than money, because even money is a fictional creation of men who knew what society will recognize in exchange for value. 

This article seeks to humbly suggest to you to examine the things you have recognized and more importantly why you recognize those things as superior and by such have given power. Let us, as a society, examine the things we acknowledge as our communal wisdom, and let us scrutinize it for virtuousness. It is my hope by such know-why we will align power appropriately to where it belongs; for power must belong to wisdom, purpose, courage, justice and a prosperous and happy society. And aww, never think of knowledge as chewing, pouring and passing.

In conclusion, I have documented knowledge of why it is time for the African to ‘Be The Difference’, a book I truly believe has the necessary principles and discussions to transform a person’s life, but as with all forms of knowledge that is power, it must be acknowledged. The beauty of the book is that it is acknowledge by Uncle Ebo Whyte as it bears his picture and tells of his journey of transforming himself to become the man who has produced 45 plays, including the upcoming, Final Warning (a play you must definitely see). The book also has the foreword from Rev. Albert and Comfort Ocran. It appears this project has received some significant recognition by great sons of Africa and so it is time for you to reach out for a copy from the SU Bookshop at the SU Towers, Ridge and let us treasure knowledge, praying we may rebuild Africa not as Commodus ruined Rome, for indeed, acknowledged knowledge sure is power.

My name is Yaw Sompa, I am an African Child who believes in the future of our continent.

A Tribute: May Your Beauty Flourish

Our common bond was our birthdays, 29^th October. We first met at GIMPA Faculty of law. Lawyers wannabe, common adversities and similar struggle but it was always a smile and hi. Although we didn’t speak much then, Nana Ama Nkansah, filled me in as and when I needed an update. Then 2017 October 29^th came. As fate will have it, we both met at Tang Palace, you with a small group for your birthday and I with one friend. We didn’t say much even for this day except for our usual smile and hi. When I went for 'filla' from Ama, she got tired and sent me your number but I don’t remember reaching out until your father died, not long after our birthday. I called to the usual beautiful smile and said, ‘hey, sorry for your loss.’ We then spoke at length for the first time, finding strength in pain, in your loss.

That was the beginning of our friendship, a bond I have come to treasure and one I will remember for all eternity. You had lost your father and as for me, well, a girl I thought I loved had bounced me after what I considered years of work, yeah right, I remember how you will laugh at me amidst the words of wisdom anytime it came up in our conversations.

We scheduled our first date, a dinner. I remember picking you up that evening, you looked amazing as always, the conversation started with my newly registered 2018 car and spiraled into all sorts of hearty beautiful 'laughters'. We had a great evening full of beautiful conversation and a wonderful time. We will latter go and watch a movie, you chose, Jumanji- Welcome to the Jungle. You loved a good laugh and my memories with you are pretty fond times, you completely enjoyed a really good laugh, sometimes at my expense and as the Osofo Maame you were, you never stopped exuding wisdom. I wished we had spent more time together. You taught me valuable lessons, let me share a few with the world as we say goodbye today.

1. Never lose twice. This was you telling me, losing a girl maybe hard but I shouldn’t let one loss lead to other losses. You encouraged me to find meaning in the things I love; work, passions, dreams, etc. Your strength to always find a way out of difficult moments were exemplary. I remember we spoke the day they released your results for the entrance exam to Makola. I was on campus and I had to check the results for you. I went through, I didn’t know how to tell you I couldn’t find your index number, but after we spoke, you said, you were heartbroken but you will be fine and indeed, it did not take long for you to start your food business. You were truly an example of strength. Thank you for showing us how to be strong when things do not go as we plan and wish. 
2. A woman multiplies. You became my relationship counselor. My guide to finding a good woman. You always said, be sure what you are giving a woman because she will multiply it and give it back to you. Then you will say, what did you give this girl, if it was truly love, you shouldn’t be pained, because if she didn’t give you love back then she is not the right woman for you. As simple as it sounds, that is my compass now. You showed me how beautiful and resourceful a true woman is and how to tell a good one from one that may not be meant for you. Thank you. 
3. A meaningful life is not one lived to be 100. All life offered you was 28 years but one you truly made the best of. You have left an emptiness in all our hearts because you were such a great person. I have read over our chats countless of times, your wits, your lightheartedness, your depth, your care, your humanity. You were truly a life well lived, my friend.

We believed in the quote “We are all formed of frailty and error, let us pardon reciprocally each other’s folly, that is the first law of nature.” I remember how we went on and on about this after watching ‘Roman J. Israel, Esq.’ I just should have had the courage to say you meant so much more to me. I should have told you often how amazing you were and that I truly loved you and cherished our friendship but I am sure you will forgive my folly as you rest well beautiful. 

We last met at the National theater for an Uncle Ebo Whyte's show, I was working and couldn't see you off, least did I know it was our last time. As it turned out, I wrote a new book about Uncle Ebo and Leadership, one I know you would have loved, I had been MIA for awhile, yet again, look down on me with smile and forgive my assumption that, we had our whole life ahead of us. We shall meet again someday but for now, in the bosom of Abraham, may your beauty flourish. I miss you.